SACCI Press Release
Trade Conditions Slip
The Trade Activity Index (TAI) of SACCI’s Trade Conditions Survey for September 2017 dipped to a low 40 – down from 48 in August 2017. All elements of trade experienced lower readings with only employment remaining unchanged. The seasonally adjusted TAI was also down by 9 index points on August – bucking the current trend indicating a possible temporary sharp decline. The TAI was 11 index points lower in September 2017 at 40 than the 51 in September 2016.
The sharply lower trade conditions in September were lower than the general decline in the value added by the wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants as well as lower import and export volumes. New vehicle sales, however, lately again performed better than general trade conditions indicate.
The seasonally adjusted Trade Expectations Index (TEI) remained stable since March 2017 around the moderate level of 50 and continued on that level in September. The seasonally adjusted Trade Expectations Index (TEI), contrary to the lower TAI, remained on 50 in September 2017. The weaker rand against currencies of major trading partners and unchanged nominal interest rates appear to have fed negative trade sentiments. It is expected that interest rates will remain unchanged and thus will leave the real cost of finance relatively high.
Sale volumes decreased notably in September as the sales volume index dipped by nine points to 46. The new orders index also declined notably to 38 from 49 in August. However, expected sales volumes declined marginally as the index measured 3 index points lower at 59 in September 2017. Expectations for new orders also declined from 53 to 51 in September 2017 implying relative stable trade conditions ahead.
The inventory index decreased from 46 to 43 in September 2017 after higher stock levels were recorded in August 2017. The selling price index rose marginally to 56 with the input price index increasing to 65 from 62. Although still high, the price indices remain in line for low inflationary pressures although the sales price expectations index increased by 2 points to 63 points in September 2017 and input prices expected to rally with the index rising from 65 to 74 in September 2017.
The employment sub-index remained passive at 43 in September 2017 – 7 index points lower than in September 2016, and the employment outlook for the next 6 months marginally lower at 41 compared to 43 in August 2017.
Released by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry at the SACCI offices in Rosebank, Johannesburg
For more information and infographic, see the SACCI website – www.sacci.org.za or contact:
Alan Mukoki
SACCI CEO Cell: 082 551 1159
Richard Downing
Economist for SACCI Cell: 082 822 5566
Read the Trade Conditions Survey here:
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