SACCI press release
16 January 2019
Moderate but strained trade conditions
Results from SACCI’s December 2018 trade conditions survey show that activity improved slightly on November 2018 if adjusted for seasonal factors whereas the six-month prospects remained muted. The seasonally adjusted Trade Activity Index (TAI) recorded 47 compared to 40 in November 2018. In December 2018 the non-seasonally adjusted TAI declined to 40 from the 43 of November 2018 with the retail sales component having a strong seasonal factor as usual in December.
Expectations for the next six months remained negative notwithstanding that the Trade Expectations Index (TEI) increased slightly to 45 from 44 in November 2018. The TEI was 14 points below the December 2017 level of 59 mainly caused by high expectations in December 2017 following on the positive business climate after new leadership was elected by the ruling party.
Although 2019 holds new promises, political uncertainty, municipal strikes, looming loadshedding, land reform, and the deteriorating global economy, are impacting trade conditions negatively additional to sector specific issues. The sales sub-index declined by 3 index points to 43 in December while the new orders index dropped by 6 index points. The sales outlook index was 50 compared to 52 in November 2018 while the sub-index for expected new orders increase marginally from 44 in November to 45 in December 2018.
The sales price index was sticky at 57 in December, and the input price index remained high at 71 but dropped 3 points in December 2018. Price expectationsindicated a slight increase in inflationary prospects.
The employment sub-index improved marginally by 1 point to 39 and the six-month employment-outlook increased from 37 to 41.
Released by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry at their offices in Illovo, Johannesburg.
For more information and infographic, see the SACCI website – www.sacci.org.za or contact:
Alan Mukoki
SACCI CEO Cell: 082 551 1159
Richard Downing
Economist for SACCI Cell: 082 822 5566
Author: Derrick Markotter
RCCI Webmaster Derrick runs a boutique web marketing agency, IdealMedia Marketing.