SACCI Press Release
Embargo: 11:30 on 10 December 2015
Trade Conditions Stay Under Pressure
Trade conditions came under further pressure in November 2015 as the seasonally adjusted (sa) composite Trade Activity Index (TAI) measured 42 compared to 47 in October 2015. The November 2014 sa TAI stood at 61 reflecting usual high volumes of business-to-business trade this time of year before closing for the holiday period.
The non-seasonally adjusted TAI declined to 46 and was thirteen points below the TAI of 59 in November 2014. Real domestic final demand (GDE) as well as foreign export volumes declined to well below their longer-term trend lines. The higher interest rates and the weaker rand exchange rate further restrained trade.
The sales volumes sub-index decreased from 48 in October 2015 to 46 while new orders dipped by four points to 44 in November 2015. Supplier deliveries recovered during the month by one index point to 44 in November 2015 while the inventories sub-index declined from 57 October 2015 to 52 in November 2015. The sales price sub-index increased marginally by 2 points to 57 while the input prices sub-index remained on 67 – reflecting no additional cost pressures in November.
Trade expectations for the next six months remained lacklustre and kept to the negative outlook of October 2015. The seasonally adjusted Trade Expectations Index (TEI) of 49 moved into negative territory in November 2015 – the first time since May 2009 while the non-adjusted TEI was 46 compared to 57 a year ago. Sales price expectations were one index point up while input prices eased further by 4 index points to 69. Sales and new order expectations declined notably by 6 and 4 points respectively in November 2015 from 50 and 43 in October 2015.
The current employment situation in the trade sector dipped to 49 in November 2015 as the employment sub-index declined by 4 index points. The sub-index on employment prospects improved by 10 points to 56.
Released by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry at the SACCI offices in Rosebank, Johannesburg
For more information, see the SACCI website, www.sacci.org.za or contact:
Richard Downing Peggy Drodskie
Economist for SACCI SACCI COO
Cell: 082 822 5566 Phone: 011 – 446 3800