SACCI PRESS RELEASE
Wednesday, 10 October 2018
SACCI released the September 2018 SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI) at its Offices in Illovo, Johannesburg.
The SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI), comprising of indicators valued by business as critical to their assessment of the business climate, has improved in September 2018 to 93.3, from 90.5 in August 2018 – an increase of 2.8 index points. The BCI declined by 4.2 index points in August 2018 month-on-month. The BCI for September 2018 was 0.3 index points up on the September 2017 level.
The present business climate and restrained economic momentum, originate from the economic and business environment over the past three years. It is important that these adverse conditions are dealt with in preparation of sustainable economic prospects with policy certainty.
Four of the thirteen sub-indices of the composite BCI improved in September 2018, compared to August 2018, five were unchanged and four were negative. In August 2018, three sub-indices improved month-on-month, and five were unchanged. Merchandise export volumes, new vehicle sales and lower inflation were the most notable positive month-on-month contributors to the BCI in September 2018.
The marginally higher BCI in September 2018, versus September 2017, was mainly the result of increased merchandise export volumes. Two of the seven real-activity indices made positive year-on-year impacts on the BCI in September 2018, while one (real cost of finance) of the six financial sub-indices, had a positive year-on-year effect on the business climate.
The initiatives of the stimulus package, announced by the President, should be outlined in more detail over the coming months. It remains imperative to create and build institutional capabilities to implement and translate policy, plans and ideas into actual outcomes that can be measured and monitored.
Business confidence should benefit from the upcoming Medium Term Budget Policy Statement and the Investment and Jobs Summit in October. These should provide direction and policy clarity. Hopefully, these can shift South Africa out of the current technical recession and away from stagflation, which may be very costly and difficult to eradicate once it starts, both in social terms and on the budget deficit.
For a full background to this month’s SACCI BCI see the economic commentary in the BCI report on www.sacci.org.za.
For more information, contact:
Alan Mukoki SACCI CEO 011 446 3800
Richard Downing SACCI Economist 082 822 5566
Read the full BCI report below:
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